Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marco Trungelliti
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
64.4%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+8.8%
Expected value: +$1.76 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.76 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.4% · fair market: 56.7% · edge: +13.6%
Model probabilities Marco Trungelliti 64.4% · Nicolas Mejia 35.6% Why Marco Trungelliti is favoured Marco Trungelliti's Elo (1456) is +51 over Nicolas Mejia (1405); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 64.4% vs market 56.7% (edge +13.6%, suggested Kelly +12.8% of bankroll).