Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Shuai Zhang
To win
+$37.60
Total payout
$57.60
Joint prob
44.9%
Combined odds
2.88
Fair odds
2.23
Edge
+29.3%
Expected value: +$5.86 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.86 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.9% · fair market: 33.8% · edge: +32.8%
Model probabilities Yulia Putintseva 55.1% · Shuai Zhang 44.9% Why Yulia Putintseva is favoured Yulia Putintseva's Elo (1559) is +17 over Shuai Zhang (1542); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 44.9% vs market 33.8% (edge +32.8%, suggested Kelly +15.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.