Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sara Bejlek
To win
+$12.00
Total payout
$32.00
Joint prob
68.3%
Combined odds
1.60
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+9.3%
Expected value: +$1.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Marathon Bet ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.3% · fair market: 59.3% · edge: +15.2%
Model probabilities Xiyu Wang 31.7% · Sara Bejlek 68.3% Why Sara Bejlek is favoured Sara Bejlek's Elo (1556) is +69 over Xiyu Wang (1487); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 68.3% vs market 59.3% (edge +15.2%, suggested Kelly +15.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.