Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Belinda Bencic
To win
+$4.60
Total payout
$24.60
Joint prob
82.0%
Combined odds
1.23
Fair odds
1.22
Edge
+0.9%
Expected value: +$0.18 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.18 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 82.0% · fair market: 78.6% · edge: +4.4%
Model probabilities Belinda Bencic 82.0% · Anastasia Zakharova 18.0% Why Belinda Bencic is favoured Belinda Bencic's Elo (1797) is +276 over Anastasia Zakharova (1522); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 82.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 82.0% vs market 78.6% (edge +4.4%, suggested Kelly +3.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.