Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Linda Noskova
To win
+$5.20
Total payout
$25.20
Joint prob
85.3%
Combined odds
1.26
Fair odds
1.17
Edge
+7.5%
Expected value: +$1.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.3% · fair market: 77.3% · edge: +10.5%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 85.3% · Caty McNally 14.7% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1777) is +217 over Caty McNally (1560); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 85.3% vs market 77.3% (edge +10.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).