Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Coco Gauff
To win
+$5.20
Total payout
$25.20
Joint prob
81.7%
Combined odds
1.26
Fair odds
1.22
Edge
+3.0%
Expected value: +$0.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.7% · fair market: 77.3% · edge: +5.8%
Model probabilities Coco Gauff 81.7% · Elise Mertens 18.3% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1920) is +240 over Elise Mertens (1679); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 81.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 81.7% vs market 77.3% (edge +5.8%, suggested Kelly +11.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.