Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$30.60
Total payout
$50.60
Joint prob
46.1%
Combined odds
2.53
Fair odds
2.17
Edge
+16.7%
Expected value: +$3.33 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.33 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.1% · fair market: 38.6% · edge: +19.5%
Model probabilities Jaume Munar 46.1% · Arthur Rinderknech 53.9% Why Arthur Rinderknech is favoured Jaume Munar's Elo (1609) is +13 over Arthur Rinderknech (1596); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 54.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 46.1% vs market 38.6% (edge +19.5%, suggested Kelly +10.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.