Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tallon Griekspoor
To win
+$21.20
Total payout
$41.20
Joint prob
64.4%
Combined odds
2.06
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+32.6%
Expected value: +$6.51 on a $20 stake.
Tallon Griekspoor recently experienced physical struggles during his last tournament in Montreal, which could impact his performance in the upcoming match against Botic van de Zandschulp. No integrity flags or other significant morale issues were found for either player within the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$6.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.4% · fair market: 47.2% · edge: +36.4%
Model probabilities Botic van de Zandschulp 35.6% · Tallon Griekspoor 64.4% Why Tallon Griekspoor is favoured Tallon Griekspoor's Elo (1636) is +19 over Botic van de Zandschulp (1618); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 44.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.4% vs market 47.2% (edge +36.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.