Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jessica Pegula
To win
+$1.80
Total payout
$21.80
Joint prob
93.6%
Combined odds
1.09
Fair odds
1.07
Edge
+2.0%
Expected value: +$0.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 93.6% · fair market: 87.9% · edge: +6.4%
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 93.6% · Magdalena Frech 6.4% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1925) is +384 over Magdalena Frech (1542); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 93.6% vs market 87.9% (edge +6.4%, suggested Kelly +22.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.