Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aryna Sabalenka
To win
+$0.80
Total payout
$20.80
Joint prob
98.0%
Combined odds
1.04
Fair odds
1.02
Edge
+1.9%
Expected value: +$0.38 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.38 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 98.0% · fair market: 93.3% · edge: +5.1%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 98.0% · Moyuka Uchijima 2.0% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2066) is +672 over Moyuka Uchijima (1394); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 98.0% vs market 93.3% (edge +5.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).