Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Fabian Marozsan
To win
+$15.80
Total payout
$35.80
Joint prob
63.2%
Combined odds
1.79
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+13.0%
Expected value: +$2.61 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.61 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.2% · fair market: 54.3% · edge: +16.2%
Model probabilities Fabian Marozsan 63.2% · Zachary Svajda 36.8% Why Fabian Marozsan is favoured Fabian Marozsan's Elo (1542) is +61 over Zachary Svajda (1481); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 66.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 63.2% vs market 54.3% (edge +16.2%, suggested Kelly +16.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.