Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Adam Walton
To win
+$26.40
Total payout
$46.40
Joint prob
50.7%
Combined odds
2.32
Fair odds
1.97
Edge
+17.6%
Expected value: +$3.53 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.53 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.7% · fair market: 42.0% · edge: +20.7%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 49.3% · Adam Walton 50.7% Why Adam Walton is favoured Jaime Faria's Elo (1535) is +35 over Adam Walton (1500); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.7% vs market 42.0% (edge +20.7%, suggested Kelly +13.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.