Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
To win
+$20.60
Total payout
$40.60
Joint prob
52.4%
Combined odds
2.03
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+6.4%
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.4% · fair market: 47.8% · edge: +9.6%
Model probabilities Juan Manuel Cerundolo 52.4% · Arthur Gea 47.6% Calibration Raw model: 65.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 52.4% vs market 47.8% (edge +9.6%, suggested Kelly +6.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.