Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Eva Lys
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
79.0%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+20.1%
Expected value: +$4.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Marathon Bet ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.0% · fair market: 62.4% · edge: +26.7%
Model probabilities Panna Udvardy 21.0% · Eva Lys 79.0% Why Eva Lys is favoured Eva Lys's Elo (1606) is +143 over Panna Udvardy (1463); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 79.0% vs market 62.4% (edge +26.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).