Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
To win
+$74.20
Total payout
$94.20
Joint prob
22.3%
Combined odds
4.71
Fair odds
4.48
Edge
+5.2%
Expected value: +$1.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.3% · fair market: 20.6% · edge: +8.5%
Model probabilities Camilo Ugo Carabelli 22.3% · Cameron Norrie 77.7% Why Cameron Norrie is favoured Cameron Norrie's Elo (1605) is +130 over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1475); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 22.3% vs market 20.6% (edge +8.5%, suggested Kelly +1.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.