Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Comesana
To win
+$78.00
Total payout
$98.00
Joint prob
29.0%
Combined odds
4.90
Fair odds
3.45
Edge
+42.2%
Expected value: +$8.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 29.0% · fair market: 19.8% · edge: +46.5%
Model probabilities Francisco Comesana 29.0% · Flavio Cobolli 71.0% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1623) is +138 over Francisco Comesana (1485); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 29.0% vs market 19.8% (edge +46.5%, suggested Kelly +10.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.