Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Donna Vekic
To win
+$28.80
Total payout
$48.80
Joint prob
50.7%
Combined odds
2.44
Fair odds
1.97
Edge
+23.7%
Expected value: +$4.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.7% · fair market: 39.9% · edge: +27.1%
Model probabilities Ann Li 49.3% · Donna Vekic 50.7% Why Donna Vekic is favoured Ann Li's Elo (1562) is +35 over Donna Vekic (1528); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.7% vs market 39.9% (edge +27.1%, suggested Kelly +16.5% of bankroll).