Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Raphael Collignon
To win
+$8.20
Total payout
$28.20
Joint prob
63.2%
Combined odds
1.41
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
-10.9%
Expected value: $-2.19 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-2.19 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.2% · fair market: 48.4% · edge: +30.7%
Model probabilities Raphael Collignon 63.2% · Alexei Popyrin 36.8% Why Raphael Collignon is favoured Raphael Collignon's Elo (1573) is +46 over Alexei Popyrin (1526); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 63.2% vs market 48.4% (edge +30.7%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.