Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sorana Cirstea
To win
+$7.60
Total payout
$27.60
Joint prob
85.7%
Combined odds
1.38
Fair odds
1.17
Edge
+18.3%
Expected value: +$3.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.7% · fair market: 70.1% · edge: +22.2%
Model probabilities Sorana Cirstea 85.7% · Maya Joint 14.3% Why Sorana Cirstea is favoured Sorana Cirstea's Elo (1780) is +223 over Maya Joint (1558); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 85.7% vs market 70.1% (edge +22.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).