Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$7.00
Total payout
$27.00
Joint prob
78.8%
Combined odds
1.35
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+6.4%
Expected value: +$1.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.8% · fair market: 72.4% · edge: +8.9%
Model probabilities Alex de Minaur 78.8% · Quentin Halys 21.2% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1757) is +228 over Quentin Halys (1529); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 78.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 78.8% vs market 72.4% (edge +8.9%, suggested Kelly +18.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.