Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Paula Badosa
To win
+$115.00
Total payout
$135.00
Joint prob
21.5%
Combined odds
6.75
Fair odds
4.65
Edge
+45.0%
Expected value: +$9.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.5% · fair market: 14.3% · edge: +49.8%
Model probabilities Paula Badosa 21.5% · Coco Gauff 78.5% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1908) is +277 over Paula Badosa (1631); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 11.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 21.5% vs market 14.3% (edge +49.8%, suggested Kelly +7.8% of bankroll).