Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Bu Yunchaokete
To win
+$158.80
Total payout
$178.80
Joint prob
50.0%
Combined odds
8.94
Fair odds
2.00
Edge
+346.8%
Expected value: +$69.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$69.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.0% · fair market: 10.8% · edge: +363.7%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 50.0% · Bu Yunchaokete 50.0% Why Rafael Jodar is favoured Rafael Jodar's Elo (1627) is +40 over Bu Yunchaokete (1587); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 61.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.0% vs market 10.8% (edge +363.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.