Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Taylor Fritz
To win
+$1.20
Total payout
$21.20
Joint prob
86.2%
Combined odds
1.06
Fair odds
1.16
Edge
-8.7%
Expected value: $-1.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 86.2% · fair market: 81.9% · edge: +5.2%
Model probabilities Thiago Agustin Tirante 13.8% · Taylor Fritz 86.2% Why Taylor Fritz is favoured Taylor Fritz's Elo (1765) is +230 over Thiago Agustin Tirante (1535); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 86.2% vs market 81.9% (edge +5.2%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.