Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Iga Swiatek
To win
+$2.20
Total payout
$22.20
Joint prob
89.7%
Combined odds
1.11
Fair odds
1.12
Edge
-0.5%
Expected value: $-0.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 89.7% · fair market: 86.3% · edge: +3.9%
Sara Bejlek enters the second round of the WTA Canadian Open after a three-set victory over Xinyu Wang. The young Czech player has shown good form recently, reaching back-to-back quarter-finals in previous tournaments.
Lineup: Expected to start in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open.
Iga Swiatek is looking to turn her season around at the Canadian Open, having struggled since the start of 2026 and dropping to world number eight. She is returning to competition after an early exit at Wimbledon and a subsequent break from tennis.
Lineup: Expected to start her Canadian Open campaign in the second round.
“Iga Swiatek seeks to rebound at Canadian Open against in-form Sara Bejlek after recent struggles.”
Model probabilities Sara Bejlek 10.3% · Iga Swiatek 89.7% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1859) is +290 over Sara Bejlek (1569); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 89.7% vs market 86.3% (edge +3.9%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll). News context Iga Swiatek seeks to rebound at Canadian Open against in-form Sara Bejlek after recent struggles. Sara Bejlek: Sara Bejlek enters the second round of the WTA Canadian Open after a three-set victory over Xinyu Wang. The young Czech player has shown good form recently, reaching back-to-back quarter-finals in previous tournaments. Iga Swiatek: Iga Swiatek is looking to turn her season around at the Canadian Open, having struggled since the start of 2026 and dropping to world number eight. She is returning to competition after an early exit at Wimbledon and a subsequent break from tennis.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.