Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Frances Tiafoe
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
67.3%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.49
Edge
+2.3%
Expected value: +$0.45 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 67.3% · fair market: 64.2% · edge: +4.9%
Model probabilities Valentin Vacherot 32.7% · Frances Tiafoe 67.3% Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1746) is +90 over Valentin Vacherot (1656); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 67.3% vs market 64.2% (edge +4.9%, suggested Kelly +4.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.