Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Stefanos Tsitsipas
To win
+$9.00
Total payout
$29.00
Joint prob
73.2%
Combined odds
1.45
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+6.1%
Expected value: +$1.23 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.23 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.2% · fair market: 67.4% · edge: +8.6%
Model probabilities Lloyd Harris 26.8% · Stefanos Tsitsipas 73.2% Why Stefanos Tsitsipas is favoured Stefanos Tsitsipas's Elo (1623) is +174 over Lloyd Harris (1449); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.2% vs market 67.4% (edge +8.6%, suggested Kelly +13.7% of bankroll).