Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nuno Borges
To win
+$27.80
Total payout
$47.80
Joint prob
49.3%
Combined odds
2.39
Fair odds
2.03
Edge
+17.9%
Expected value: +$3.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.3% · fair market: 40.7% · edge: +21.2%
Model probabilities Andrey Rublev 50.7% · Nuno Borges 49.3% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1661) is +45 over Nuno Borges (1617); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 49.3% vs market 40.7% (edge +21.2%, suggested Kelly +12.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.