Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nikoloz Basilashvili
To win
+$37.00
Total payout
$57.00
Joint prob
51.6%
Combined odds
2.85
Fair odds
1.94
Edge
+47.0%
Expected value: +$9.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.6% · fair market: 33.6% · edge: +53.6%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 48.4% · Nikoloz Basilashvili 51.6% Why Nikoloz Basilashvili is favoured Jaime Faria's Elo (1489) is +86 over Nikoloz Basilashvili (1403); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 71.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 51.6% vs market 33.6% (edge +53.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.