Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karolina Muchova
To win
+$5.40
Total payout
$25.40
Joint prob
81.6%
Combined odds
1.27
Fair odds
1.22
Edge
+3.7%
Expected value: +$0.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.6% · fair market: 76.7% · edge: +6.5%
Model probabilities Karolina Muchova 81.6% · Liudmila Samsonova 18.4% Why Karolina Muchova is favoured Karolina Muchova's Elo (1888) is +269 over Liudmila Samsonova (1618); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 81.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 81.6% vs market 76.7% (edge +6.5%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.