Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
79.8%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.25
Edge
+4.6%
Expected value: +$0.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.8% · fair market: 73.9% · edge: +8.1%
Model probabilities Mattia Bellucci 20.2% · Jakub Mensik 79.8% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1727) is +246 over Mattia Bellucci (1481); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 12.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 79.8% vs market 73.9% (edge +8.1%, suggested Kelly +14.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.