Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
To win
+$31.80
Total payout
$51.80
Joint prob
63.4%
Combined odds
2.59
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+64.1%
Expected value: +$12.82 on a $20 stake.
Terence Atmane has been subject to recent criticism for his on-court conduct during a match in Canada, and an earlier public falling-out with his coach cited behavioral issues. Tomas Martin Etcheverry, as a seeded player, received a first-round bye in Cincinnati, while Atmane advanced after his opponent retired.
Terence Atmane was criticized for his conduct during a win over an injured Jack Draper in Canada.
Terence Atmane had an 'explosive split' with his coach Guillaume Peyre before Wimbledon, with the coach citing 'problems of behavior and attitude' and a 'lack of respect'.
Terence Atmane advanced to the second round of the Cincinnati Masters 1000 on August 14, 2026, after his opponent Marton Fucsovics retired due to a back injury. Atmane noted that Fucsovics was not serving at 100%.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry, as the 26th seed, received a bye in the first round of the Cincinnati Open and will be playing his first match in the tournament.
Expected value: +$12.82 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.4% · fair market: 37.6% · edge: +68.6%
Model probabilities Terence Atmane 36.6% · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 63.4% Why Tomas Martin Etcheverry is favoured Tomas Martin Etcheverry's Elo (1579) is +11 over Terence Atmane (1568); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 46.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.4% vs market 37.6% (edge +68.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.