Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Amanda Anisimova
To win
+$5.00
Total payout
$25.00
Joint prob
80.3%
Combined odds
1.25
Fair odds
1.25
Edge
+0.4%
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Amanda Anisimova has recently reunited with her former coach, Hendrik Vleeshouwers, and is focused on rediscovering her enjoyment and confidence in the game after a challenging season. No material integrity flags or key absences were reported for either player in the last 14 days.
Amanda Anisimova has reunited with her former coach, Hendrik Vleeshouwers, in an effort to stabilize her form and rediscover her enjoyment of the game after a turbulent few months and numerous setbacks this season.
Amanda Anisimova stated she is 'past that point with the points and everything' and is primarily focused on finding her game and enjoying being on the tennis court again after a long year.
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.3% · fair market: 77.4% · edge: +3.7%
Model probabilities Zeynep Sonmez 19.7% · Amanda Anisimova 80.3% Why Amanda Anisimova is favoured Amanda Anisimova's Elo (1810) is +258 over Zeynep Sonmez (1552); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 12.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 80.3% vs market 77.4% (edge +3.7%, suggested Kelly +1.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.