Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Novak Djokovic
To win
+$24.20
Total payout
$44.20
Joint prob
68.0%
Combined odds
2.21
Fair odds
1.47
Edge
+50.2%
Expected value: +$10.05 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.05 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.0% · fair market: 44.1% · edge: +54.3%
Model probabilities Novak Djokovic 68.0% · Daniil Medvedev 32.0% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Novak Djokovic's Elo (1900) is +109 over Daniil Medvedev (1791); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 75.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 68.0% vs market 44.1% (edge +54.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.