Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Coco Gauff
To win
+$12.60
Total payout
$32.60
Joint prob
70.2%
Combined odds
1.63
Fair odds
1.43
Edge
+14.4%
Expected value: +$2.88 on a $20 stake.
Belinda Bencic has shown signs of potential morale issues and an ongoing physical concern in the last 14 days. She publicly expressed frustration towards her coaching team during a match at the Canadian Open on August 8, 2026. Additionally, she has been managing a 'nagging injury' leading into the tournament and had her thigh taped during her match on August 10, 2026.
Belinda Bencic publicly lashed out at her husband and coaching team during her third-round match against Taylor Townsend at the Canadian Open.
Expected value: +$2.88 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.2% · fair market: 59.9% · edge: +17.2%
Model probabilities Belinda Bencic 29.8% · Coco Gauff 70.2% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1883) is +73 over Belinda Bencic (1810); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 31.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 29.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.2% vs market 59.9% (edge +17.2%, suggested Kelly +22.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.