Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lorenzo Sonego
To win
+$30.00
Total payout
$50.00
Joint prob
63.8%
Combined odds
2.50
Fair odds
1.57
Edge
+59.4%
Expected value: +$11.89 on a $20 stake.
Juncheng Shang recently experienced an arm issue during his last match in Montreal and noted his body is still adapting to match play after a lengthy injury layoff, which could impact his performance. Lorenzo Sonego entered the Cincinnati Open main draw as a replacement, indicating his fitness for the tournament.
Juncheng Shang is expected to play, but recently took a medical timeout for an arm issue and mentioned his body is still adapting to match play after a lengthy injury layoff.
Expected value: +$11.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.8% · fair market: 38.9% · edge: +64.1%
Model probabilities Juncheng Shang 36.2% · Lorenzo Sonego 63.8% Why Lorenzo Sonego is favoured Lorenzo Sonego's Elo (1556) is +14 over Juncheng Shang (1542); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 45.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 36.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.8% vs market 38.9% (edge +64.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.