Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nicolas Mejia
To win
+$22.20
Total payout
$42.20
Joint prob
48.2%
Combined odds
2.11
Fair odds
2.08
Edge
+1.7%
Expected value: +$0.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.2% · fair market: 45.5% · edge: +6.0%
Model probabilities Henrique Rocha 51.8% · Nicolas Mejia 48.2% Why Henrique Rocha is favoured Henrique Rocha's Elo (1529) is +124 over Nicolas Mejia (1405); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.2% vs market 45.5% (edge +6.0%, suggested Kelly +1.5% of bankroll).