Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Talia Gibson
To win
+$26.00
Total payout
$46.00
Joint prob
43.6%
Combined odds
2.30
Fair odds
2.29
Edge
+0.4%
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.6% · fair market: 42.4% · edge: +3.0%
Model probabilities Talia Gibson 43.6% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 56.4% Why Ekaterina Alexandrova is favoured Ekaterina Alexandrova's Elo (1625) is +21 over Talia Gibson (1604); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 43.6% vs market 42.4% (edge +3.0%, suggested Kelly +0.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.