Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Gea
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
59.3%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+8.4%
Expected value: +$1.69 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.3% · fair market: 50.9% · edge: +16.3%
Model probabilities Zachary Svajda 40.8% · Arthur Gea 59.2% Why Arthur Gea is favoured Arthur Gea's Elo (1519) is +23 over Zachary Svajda (1496); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 43.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.2% vs market 50.9% (edge +16.3%, suggested Kelly +10.1% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.