Model probabilities Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 23.0% · Valentin Vacherot 77.0% Why Valentin Vacherot is favoured Valentin Vacherot's Elo (1668) is +182 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1485); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 17.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.