Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.3% · fair market: 51.7% · edge: +1.1%
Model probabilities Tomas Machac 52.3% · Pablo Carreno Busta 47.7% Why Tomas Machac is favoured Tomas Machac's Elo (1652) is +130 over Pablo Carreno Busta (1522); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 77.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.