Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tommy Paul
To win
+$1.20
Total payout
$21.20
Joint prob
85.3%
Combined odds
1.06
Fair odds
1.17
Edge
-9.5%
Expected value: $-1.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.3% · fair market: 74.8% · edge: +14.1%
Model probabilities Valentin Royer 14.7% · Tommy Paul 85.3% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1735) is +217 over Valentin Royer (1518); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 85.3% vs market 74.8% (edge +14.1%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.