Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
To win
+$39.60
Total payout
$59.60
Joint prob
38.6%
Combined odds
2.98
Fair odds
2.59
Edge
+15.0%
Expected value: +$3.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.6% · fair market: 32.6% · edge: +18.5%
Model probabilities Camilo Ugo Carabelli 38.6% · Ilia Simakin 61.4% Calibration Raw model: 36.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 38.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 38.6% vs market 32.6% (edge +18.5%, suggested Kelly +7.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.