Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mattia Bellucci
To win
+$31.40
Total payout
$51.40
Joint prob
62.0%
Combined odds
2.57
Fair odds
1.61
Edge
+59.4%
Expected value: +$11.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.0% · fair market: 37.8% · edge: +64.2%
Model probabilities Zachary Svajda 38.0% · Mattia Bellucci 62.0% Why Mattia Bellucci is favoured Elo essentially level (1480 vs 1481) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 49.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 62.0% vs market 37.8% (edge +64.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).