Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ashlyn Krueger
To win
+$12.00
Total payout
$32.00
Joint prob
69.7%
Combined odds
1.60
Fair odds
1.43
Edge
+11.6%
Expected value: +$2.32 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.7% · fair market: 60.9% · edge: +14.6%
Model probabilities Sofia Kenin 30.3% · Ashlyn Krueger 69.7% Why Ashlyn Krueger is favoured Ashlyn Krueger's Elo (1563) is +88 over Sofia Kenin (1476); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 28.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 30.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.7% vs market 60.9% (edge +14.6%, suggested Kelly +19.3% of bankroll).