Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 84.9% · fair market: 83.1% · edge: +2.2%
Model probabilities Daniil Medvedev 84.9% · Jan-Lennard Struff 15.1% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1804) is +292 over Jan-Lennard Struff (1511); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 84.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.