Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.1% · fair market: 35.7% · edge: -4.5%
Model probabilities Shuai Zhang 34.1% · Jelena Ostapenko 65.9% Why Jelena Ostapenko is favoured Jelena Ostapenko's Elo (1617) is +58 over Shuai Zhang (1559); high confidence. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.