Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
65.3%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+10.4%
Expected value: +$2.08 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.08 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.3% · fair market: 57.8% · edge: +13.1%
Model probabilities Jaume Munar 65.3% · Kyrian Jacquet 34.7% Why Jaume Munar is favoured Jaume Munar's Elo (1622) is +90 over Kyrian Jacquet (1532); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 65.3% vs market 57.8% (edge +13.1%, suggested Kelly +15.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.