Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marta Kostyuk
To win
+$22.00
Total payout
$42.00
Joint prob
44.4%
Combined odds
2.10
Fair odds
2.25
Edge
-6.7%
Expected value: $-1.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.4% · fair market: 43.1% · edge: +3.1%
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 44.4% · Mirra Andreeva 55.6% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Elo essentially level (1802 vs 1799) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 50.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 44.4% vs market 43.1% (edge +3.1%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).