Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mayar Sherif
To win
+$85.20
Total payout
$105.20
Joint prob
33.5%
Combined odds
5.26
Fair odds
2.98
Edge
+76.4%
Expected value: +$15.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$15.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.5% · fair market: 18.4% · edge: +81.8%
Model probabilities Nikola Bartunkova 66.5% · Mayar Sherif 33.5% Why Nikola Bartunkova is favoured Nikola Bartunkova's Elo (1576) is +227 over Mayar Sherif (1349); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.5% vs market 18.4% (edge +81.8%, suggested Kelly +17.9% of bankroll).