Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diane Parry
To win
+$20.00
Total payout
$40.00
Joint prob
53.2%
Combined odds
2.00
Fair odds
1.88
Edge
+6.4%
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.2% · fair market: 48.6% · edge: +9.5%
Model probabilities Diane Parry 53.2% · Lois Boisson 46.8% Calibration Raw model: 67.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 53.2% vs market 48.6% (edge +9.5%, suggested Kelly +6.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.